Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has strengthened his position through what critics label "sham" elections, is making bold diplomatic moves toward China and Iran while continuing to threaten nuclear action against Western nations. Despite recent gains in the war with Ukraine, the arrest of a senior Russian commander has fueled speculation about Putin's weakening influence and the potential for a coup
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Arrest Sparks Coup Rumors
Major General Ivan Popov, formerly the head of Russia's 58th Army, was arrested on May 21 on fraud charges, according to Russian state news agency Tass. Popov was removed from his command in Ukraine’s annexed southern Zaporizhzhia region in July 2023 after criticizing the Russian Defense Ministry for insufficient support to its soldiers. In a leaked recording, Popov claimed he raised several issues with the top military command and was dismissed by then-Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
#Personnel Changes and Corruption Scandals
Popov’s arrest is part of a series of high-profile changes and scandals within Russia’s military leadership. Earlier this month, Shoigu was dismissed, and three of his deputies resigned. These changes coincide with a corruption scandal that led to the arrest of several officials, including the head of personnel at the Defense Ministry, Yuri Kuznetsov, and Deputy Minister Timur Ivanov, who faces bribery charges.
Speculation and Denials
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has denied that these arrests are part of a broader campaign, stating that investigations are routine across various departments. However, the arrest of Popov has led to significant online speculation about a potential coup. Former Pentagon official Trent Telenko suggested that Popov's removal was part of Putin's efforts to "coup-proof" his military.
Social Media Theories
Ukrainian military blogger Igor Sushko and the account @generalsvr_en have propagated the idea that the arrests signal rising coup risks within Russia. Sushko mentioned whispers of rebellion among soldiers, while @generalsvr_en claimed that plans for a military march on Moscow were in development.
Historical Context
The echoes of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s attempted mutiny in 2023 linger, raising questions about the current discontent within the Kremlin and the military. Nonetheless, the evidence for an imminent coup remains tenuous. The recent appointment of Andrei Belousov, a former deputy prime minister with no military background, as a key figure in Russia's military strategy suggests Putin’s focus may be on economic efficiency rather than internal security.
Corruption and Legacy
Timur Ivanov's arrest, linked to corruption investigations initiated by the anti-corruption organization FBK, founded by the late Alexei Navalny, highlights ongoing issues within the Russian government. Navalny’s team had previously accused Ivanov of profiting from construction projects in Mariupol and leading an opulent lifestyle abroad.
While the series of arrests and changes in Russia’s military leadership has sparked widespread speculation about a potential coup, the evidence remains speculative. Despite the dramatic claims from some commentators, no concrete proof of an impending coup has surfaced
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